熱帶擾動簡報
98W (May 19, 2011) #4
簡報編號: 98W0515201104
發佈時間: 2011/5/19 09UTC
發佈時間: 2011/5/19 09UTC
數據分析CIMSS 15Z
風切: 良好 (位於10kt低風切帶) 850mb 渦度: 良好 (橙紅色) 低空輻合: 良好 (15) 高空輻散: 良好 (20) 駛流 (750-850mb): 向西移動 ASCAT LLCC 位置: XXX LLCC 強度: XXX LLCC not scanned |
本站預測預料向西北偏西移動,受副高帶領。過去一日98W組織有改善,ASCAT 風場圖中LLCC改善,雲圖亦有疑似LLCC,強對流覆蓋有所改善,輻合輻散現時良好(脫離冷渦影響),情況好轉,但移至較高緯度有助發展,因此24小時內發展機會為低(20%),72小時內機會調升至中等(40%)。長遠來說,MJO 濕區進入西太,越赤道氣流都有助發展。一個高層反氣旋正在98W上建立,增強高空幅散。
EC預報T+120小時內TC 生成,長遠發展為台風,南海轉向;GFS 為菲東轉向。 |
過去及預報路徑圖 (Google Earth)
定位預測
時間(UTC)
實況 5/19 06:00預測 5/20 00:00 5/20 12:00 5/21 00:00 5/21 12:00 5/22 00:00 |
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JMA 報文
1900Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 07N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.
1906Z: NONE
1912Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 05N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.
1906Z: NONE
1912Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 05N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.
JTWC 報文 @ 1906Z
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.7N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC. A 182016Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A CURVED FEATURE WITH HIGH REFLECTIVITY VALUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIM OF THE LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA OUTLINES A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH MAX WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THIS SUPPORTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DUE TO THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
TXPN24 KNES 191521
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)
B. 19/1432Z
C. 8.7N
D. 142.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...FLARE UP IN CONVECTION AROUND OVERALL CIRCULATION CENTER WAS
ENOUGH TO GET 2-3 TENTHS BANDING FOR A DT OF 1.0. PT AND MET AGREES. FT
IS BASED ON MET. POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 60 NM (111 KM).
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
TXPN24 KNES 191521
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)
B. 19/1432Z
C. 8.7N
D. 142.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...FLARE UP IN CONVECTION AROUND OVERALL CIRCULATION CENTER WAS
ENOUGH TO GET 2-3 TENTHS BANDING FOR A DT OF 1.0. PT AND MET AGREES. FT
IS BASED ON MET. POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 60 NM (111 KM).
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
分析圖
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