熱帶擾動簡報
95W (May 12, 2011) #1
簡報編號: 95W0512201101
發佈時間: 2011/5/12 15UTC
發佈時間: 2011/5/12 15UTC
數據分析CIMSS 15Z
風切: 一般 (現位於10kt低風切帶, 但前方風切達30kt) 850mb 渦度: 良好 (橙紅色) 低空輻合: 差至一般 高空輻散: 差 駛流 (750-850mb): 向西移動 ASCAT 1600Z LLCC 位置: 2N 163E LLCC 強度: 10-25kt LLCC 東面不完整,可能狹長狀。 |
本站預測預料向西移動,受副高及赤道東風帶領。95W組織一般,ASCAT 風場圖顯示出微弱的LLCC,缺乏強對流覆蓋,輻合輻散不佳,且處於低緯度缺乏科氏力,因此24小時內發展機會為低(10%),72小時內機會仍低(30%)。長遠來說,MJO 濕區進入西太,及可能的越赤道氣流都有助發展。170E 附近的微弱反氣旋未能改善幅散。
EC, GFS 皆無預報240 小時內TC 生成。 |
過去及預報路徑圖 (Google Earth)
定位預測
時間(UTC)
實況 5/12 06:00預測 5/13 00:00 5/13 12:00 5/14 00:00 5/14 12:00 5/15 00:00 |
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JTWC ABPW10
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.2N 161.3E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN AREA OF WEAK, BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 112302Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC WITH 10- TO 15-KNOT CENTRAL WINDS AND 20-KNOT WINDS ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING MODERATE TO HIGH SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF APPROXIMATELY 25 KNOTS AS IT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
分析圖
GFS NONE
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ECMWF NONE
ORSM (HKO) OUT OF RANGE
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