熱帶擾動簡報
94W (May 9, 2011) #4
簡報編號: 94W0505201104
發佈時間: 2011/5/9 09UTC
發佈時間: 2011/5/9 09UTC
數據分析CIMSS 09Z
風切: 佳 (大型低風切帶) 850mb 渦度: 一般 (橙黃) 低空輻合: 一般 高空輻散: 佳 駛流 (750-850mb): 向西或西南偏西移動 ASCAT 12Z LLCC 位置: 2N 144E LLCC 強度: 5-10kt |
本站預測預料向西移動,受副高及赤道東風帶領。94W組織已有改善,ASCAT 風場圖顯示出微弱的LLCC (疑似外露),缺乏強對流(強對流在南半球出現,難以組織),輻合輻散不佳,且處於低緯度缺乏科氏力,因此24小時內發展機會為低(20%),72小時內機會提升至中等(50%)。長遠來說,MJO 濕區進入西太,及可能因03W 激發的西南季風都有助94W發展。
在其編號前,EC/GFS 已斷斷續續預出菲東轉向TC。EC 認為強度較弱 (TS 下限),GFS 則認為強度至STS 上限,路徑偏東。 |
過去及預報路徑圖 (Google Earth)
定位預測
時間(UTC)
實況 5/9 06:00預測 5/10 00:00 5/10 12:00 5/11 00:00 5/11 12:00 5/12 00:00 |
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JTWC 分析 (May 09 0600Z)
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.4N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. A 090408Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED LLCC AND A 090006Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE WEAK CIRCULATION WITH WESTERLY 15-20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
分析圖
GFS T+96 (1300Z) 0900Z
GFS T+186 (1618Z) 0900Z 984 hPa
GFSO 0800Z (See 03W 艾利)
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ECMWF T+192 (1700Z) 0900Z
T+240 (1900Z) 0900Z ORSM (HKO) T+72 (1200Z) 0900Z [east of Philippines]
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