熱帶擾動簡報
93W (May 5, 2011) #5
簡報編號: 93W0501201105
發佈時間: 2011/5/5 09UTC
發佈時間: 2011/5/5 09UTC
數據分析CIMSS 09Z
風切: 中等 (位於狹長低風切帶,風切藍至綠色) 850mb 渦度: 一般 (黃) 低空輻合: 差 高空輻散: 一般 駛流 (750-850mb): 向西至西北移動 ASCAT 08Z LLCC 定位: 10.5N, 127.5E LLCC 強度: 15-20kt LLCC 不完整,且由127E 伸至132E。 預報模式
EC, GFS 和 NGP 等預報模式預測93W將於在菲律賓東岸發展成弱熱帶氣旋,可能進入南海,並影響華沿岸地區 (GFS: 福建) 、轉向轉化或在海中消散 (EC)。
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本站分析過去向西北移動,受副高帶領。93W組織有明顯改善,螺旋性增加,變得明顯,亦於昨日14Z建立中心強對流,CISK 機制已啟動,但93W未能大幅增強,強對流略被西切。LLCC現嵌在季風槽裡(越赤道氣流與副高東風輻合),呈狹長狀,仍未完整,因此系統亦偏弱。93W環流亦較大,組織需時,但應有助其發展。在雲圖上顯示雲團已西移至125E 附近,即Bicol, Philippines,但LLCC 尚在菲東,呈半外露狀態。
因此24小時內發展機會維持在中等(50%),72小時內機會維持在高(70%)。短期內被重新定位的機會較低。 本站預測短期內發展成TC 的機會頗高,主要的障礙為登陸及輻合低。南海風切受之前的冷鋒帶來之東北氣流影響,大幅增強,不利93W發展,根據JMA天氣圖,另一道靜止鋒出現在廣東中部,亦可能南下。西南季風仍未爆發,南海10N以上仍受東北氣流控制,且93W脫離越赤道氣流支援,對系統發展造成負面影響。副高由昨天越南東退至南海中部,因此93W偏北分量將增多,轉向機會大。
預料向西北移動,受副高帶領。93W 能否達至熱帶低壓強度仍為未知之數,但相信會於今天或明天越過菲律賓,進入南海。現時尚未能預計其對香港之影響,但相信影響不大。 |
預測路徑圖 (Google Earth)
定位預測
時間(UTC)
Past 5/4 18:00 5/5 00:00 5/5 06:00 5/5 09:00 5/5 12:00 Forecast 5/6 00:00 5/6 12:00 5/7 00:00 5/7 12:00 5/8 00:00 |
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JTWC 報文 @ May 05 0600Z
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 129.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 128.1E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI- CIRCLE. A 042355Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL BANDING AND AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 050130Z ASCAT IMAGE (INCLUDING AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS) INDICATES AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15- 20 KNOT WINDS. A 05/00Z SHIP REPORT, LOCATED ABOUT 100NM NNW OF THE CENTER, VALIDATES THE ASCAT WINDS AND SHOWS 070/16 KNOTS AND SLP OF 1008MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LLCC POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 041400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. BASED ON THE SLOWLY DEVELOPING, ELONGATED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
TPPN10 PGTW 050611
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 05/0532Z
C. 11.0N
D. 127.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDED
A 1.0 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST
SSD:05/0232 UTC 10.0N 128.5E T1.0/1.0 93W
05/0832 UTC 11.0N 127.7E T1.0/1.0 93W
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JTWC reissued TCFA.
TPPN10 PGTW 050611
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 05/0532Z
C. 11.0N
D. 127.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDED
A 1.0 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST
SSD:05/0232 UTC 10.0N 128.5E T1.0/1.0 93W
05/0832 UTC 11.0N 127.7E T1.0/1.0 93W
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JTWC reissued TCFA.
WTPN21 PGTW 051400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041351ZMAY2011//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N 128.8E TO 12.6N 125.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
051330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
128.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N
128.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 128.3E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING PRIMARILY OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 051104Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LLCC
WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
050904Z WINDSAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20
KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE LLCC POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE SLOWLY
DEVELOPING, ELONGATED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061400Z.//
NNNN
=======================
TPPN10 PGTW 051209
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 05/1132Z
C. 11.2N
D. 128.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDED
A 1.0 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST
==================
ALERT ATCF MIL 93X XXX 110505120000
2011050512
10.5 128.8
12.6 125.7
130
11.1 128.3
051400
1105051351
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 051400
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041400Z MAY 11//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 041400)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N 128.8E TO 12.6N 125.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 051330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.1N 128.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 061400Z.
//
9311050400 91N1313E 15
9311050406 93N1309E 15
9311050412 95N1304E 20
9311050418 97N1299E 20
9311050500 100N1294E 20
9311050506 105N1288E 20
9311050512 111N1283E 20NNNN
JMA Positions (04 1800Z- 05 1200Z)
0418Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 09N 131E WEST SLOWLY.
0500Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 10N 129E WEST SLOWLY.
0506Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 10N 129E ALMOST STATIONARY.
0512Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 10N 129E ALMOST STATIONARY.
0500Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 10N 129E WEST SLOWLY.
0506Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 10N 129E ALMOST STATIONARY.
0512Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 10N 129E ALMOST STATIONARY.
PAGASA 報文 @ May 04 1800Z, 05 0000Z and 0600Z
At 2:00 am Today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 360 km East of Surigao City (09.5°N, 129.0°E) embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affecting Visayas and Mindanao.
======================
Weather Advisory No. 1
For: For Low Pressure Area
Issued at 11:00 a.m., 05 May 2011
At 10:00 am today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 280 km East of Surigao City (9.5°N, 128.2°E).
This disturbance is expected to bring scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms in the Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao becoming widespread rains over the Bicol Region, Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.
Residents living in low lying areas, along river banks and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures.
The next advisory will be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow.
=======================
At 2:00 p.m. Today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 130 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (11.0°N, 127.0°E).
======================
Weather Advisory No. 1
For: For Low Pressure Area
Issued at 11:00 a.m., 05 May 2011
At 10:00 am today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 280 km East of Surigao City (9.5°N, 128.2°E).
This disturbance is expected to bring scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms in the Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao becoming widespread rains over the Bicol Region, Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.
Residents living in low lying areas, along river banks and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures.
The next advisory will be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow.
=======================
At 2:00 p.m. Today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 130 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (11.0°N, 127.0°E).
HKO 7天天氣預測
位 於 南 海 北 部 及 中 國 東 南 沿 岸 的 反 氣 旋 會 在 未 來 一 兩 天 逐 漸 增 強 , 並 為 該 區 帶 來 普 遍 晴 朗 的 天 氣 。 預 料 一 個 低 壓 區 會 在 下 週 初 影 響 呂 宋 以 西 海 域 。
分析圖
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