熱帶擾動簡報
93W (May 4, 2011) #4A (特別報: JTWC 發出熱帶氣旋生成警告)
簡報編號: 93W0501201104A
發佈時間: 2011/5/4 12UTC
發佈時間: 2011/5/4 12UTC
TCFA 資料
WTPN21 PGTW 041400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 129.6E TO 11.6N 126.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 129.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N
131.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST
OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION ALTHOUGH STILL UNORGANIZED. A 041116Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND A
040922Z WINDSAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
CENTRAL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, A BUOY APPROXIMATELY 100 NM AWAY IS
REPORTING A 1005 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051400Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 129.6E TO 11.6N 126.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 129.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N
131.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST
OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION ALTHOUGH STILL UNORGANIZED. A 041116Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND A
040922Z WINDSAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
CENTRAL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, A BUOY APPROXIMATELY 100 NM AWAY IS
REPORTING A 1005 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051400Z.//
NNNN
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 04/1432Z
C. 9.1N
D. 129.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG-10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. FT BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.
B. 04/1432Z
C. 9.1N
D. 129.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG-10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. FT BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.
ALERT ATCF MIL 93X XXX 110504120000
2011050412
9.0 129.6
11.6 126.6
160
9.4 129.0
041400
1105041400
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 041400
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 129.6E TO 11.6N 126.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 129.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 051400Z.
//
9311050212 56N1374E 15
9311050218 58N1366E 15
9311050300 60N1357E 15
9311050306 63N1345E 15
9311050312 67N1334E 15
9311050318 76N1322E 15
9311050400 83N1312E 15
9311050406 89N1300E 15
9311050412 94N1290E 20
NNNN
ASCAT new LLCC
1530Z:
15-20kt
10N 131E
well-developed, associated with strong convection
TC formation chance upgraded to high (70%) in 24 hours. TC formation could be hindered by landfall over Philippine Archipelago. Chance of TC formation after moving across the Philippines is also high.
1530Z:
15-20kt
10N 131E
well-developed, associated with strong convection
TC formation chance upgraded to high (70%) in 24 hours. TC formation could be hindered by landfall over Philippine Archipelago. Chance of TC formation after moving across the Philippines is also high.
分析圖
ASCAT 041400Z, PAGASA IR, 041530Z
FNMOC IR 1301Z, 1501Z, Multi-sensor, 020701Z VIS (before relocation)
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