熱帶擾動簡報
93W (May 3, 2011) #3
簡報編號: 93W0501201103
發佈時間: 2011/5/3 09UTC
發佈時間: 2011/5/3 09UTC
數據分析風切: 良好 (位於狹長低風切帶中)
850mb 渦度: 一般 (淺橙) 低空輻合: 一般 高空輻散: 一般 駛流 (750-850mb): 向西至西北移動 (由於有疑似LLCC的存在,本站提升93W 至熱帶擾動級別。) |
本站預測預料向西北移動,受副高及赤道東風帶領。93W組織仍鬆散,但較早前已有所改善,螺旋性增加。LLCC現嵌在季風槽裡(越赤道氣流與副高東風輻合),仍未完整。現時93W亦缺乏有組織的強對流,輻合輻散不佳,但棉蘭老島上空有一反氣旋在發展,應該有利高空輻散。因此24小時內發展機會為低(20%),72小時內機會提升為中等(40%)。短期內被重新定位的機會較低。
EC, GFS 和 NGP 等預報模式預測上旬尾段在菲律賓東岸有熱帶氣旋發展,可能入南海,並影響華沿岸地區 (EC) 或轉向 (GFS, NGP)。 |
預測路徑圖 (Google Earth)
定位預測
時間(UTC)
Past 5/3 00:00 5/3 06:00 5/3 12:00 5/3 14:00 Forecast 5/4 00:00 5/4 12:00 5/5 00:00 5/5 12:00 5/6 00:00 |
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分析圖
VIS 0701Z , SSMIS Multi-sensor 1126Z
ASCAT 031400Z x2, 021930Z
CIMSS: 700-850mb Steering Layer (See near 7N 125E), Wind Shear (See South China Sea)
預報模式: ECMWF 0300Z T+72 (0600Z) , ECMWF T+144 (0900Z), T+168 (1000Z);
GFS 0306Z, GFS T+162 (1000Z) 0306Z, ORSM (HKO) T+72 (0606Z) 0306Z
GFS 0306Z, GFS T+162 (1000Z) 0306Z, ORSM (HKO) T+72 (0606Z) 0306Z
JTWC 報文 @ May 03 1400Z
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK AND UNORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AND FLARING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU INDICATE 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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