熱帶氣旋簡報
03W (May 6, 2011) #6 (前身為93W)
簡報編號: 03W201106
發佈時間: 2011/5/6 09UTC
發佈時間: 2011/5/6 09UTC
基本資料最新定位:北緯10.1度 東經128.8度
位置: 薩瑪, 菲律賓(Samar, Philippines) 東方近海 中心風力:55公里每小時 中心海平面氣壓:1000百帕斯卡 移動方向:西北偏西至西北 移動速度:每小時5公里 JMA 評級: 熱帶低氣壓 (11N 128E, 1004 百帕) JTWC 評級: 熱帶低氣壓 03W (060600Z) 30節,1000百帕 (11.5N, 128.4E) HKO 評級: 低壓區 CMA 評級: 低壓區 PAGASA 評級 : 06Z 低壓區 (11.5N, 128.5E); 12Z: 熱帶低氣壓 Bebeng (11.7N, 127.9E) CWB: 熱帶性低氣壓 (11.5N, 128.0E, 1002 百帕) |
數據分析CIMSS 12Z
風切: 好 (位於狹長低風切帶,風切藍至綠色) 850mb 渦度: 一般 (黃) 低空輻合: 一般 高空輻散: 好 駛流 (750-850mb): 向西至西北移動 ASCAT 04Z LLCC 定位: 10.5N, 128.0E LLCC 強度: 15-25kt LLCC 不完整。 預報模式
EC, GFS 和 NGP 等預報模式預測93W將於在菲律賓東岸發展成弱熱帶氣旋,可能穿越Luzon進入南海,並影響華沿岸地區 (JTWC: 台灣; GFS: 福建; ORSM) 、轉向轉化或在海中消散 (EC)。
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本站分析擾動93W於今早增強為熱帶低氣壓,獲JTWC編為03W。03W過去向西北緩慢移動,受副高帶領。03W組織有明顯改善,螺旋性增加,CISK 機制已啟動,但93W礙於多重中心而未能大幅增強,強對流略被西切,情況現已有所改善。LLCC逐漸變得原整,接近35kt 風力亦顯示有ASCAT圖上。03W環流較大,組織需時,但應有助其長遠發展。在雲圖上顯示雲團已西移至125E 附近,即Bicol, Philippines,但LLCC 尚在菲東,呈半外露狀態。
因此24小時內發展為熱帶風暴機會為高(70%),72小時內機會為高(80%)。 本站預測短期內發展成命名氣旋的機會頗高,主要的障礙為菲國陸地及弱低空輻合。南海風切開始減弱,有利03W發展,但根據JMA天氣圖,另一道靜止鋒出現在廣東中部,亦可能南下(短期內機會實不大)。西南季風仍未爆發,南海中部吹微風,東北氣流退卻,但西南季風仍未爆發,限制系統強度。副高未有明顯東退,因此03W偏北分量將受到限制,短期內不會轉向。南海中部SST達29度,菲東亦有28度,則有利增強。
預料向西北移動,受副高帶領。93W 能否達至熱帶氣旋強度仍有未知之數,但相信生成機會很大,並會於後天越過菲律賓,進入南海。現時尚未能預計其對香港之影響,但相信影響不大。 |
預測路徑圖 (Google Earth)
定位預測
時間(UTC)
Past 5/5 18:00 5/6 00:00 5/6 06:00 5/6 09:00 5/6 12:00 Forecast 5/7 00:00 5/7 12:00 5/8 00:00 5/8 12:00 5/9 00:00 |
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JTWC 報文 @ May 06 0600Z
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 128.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 052343Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOW A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS FRAGMENTED, OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO INCLUDE A 06/0108Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 05/2140Z WINDSAT IMAGE INDICATE 20-30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER; A SHIP REPORT AT 06/00Z, WEST OF THE CENTER, PROVIDES FURTHER EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOW AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITH WINDS OF 360/20 KNOTS AND SLP OF 1003.5 MB. OVERALL, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM PRODUCING GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 051400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
WTPN51 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCP MIL 03W NWP 110506074326
2011050606 03W THREE 001 01 305 04 SATL 060
T000 115N 1284E 030
T012 122N 1277E 030
T024 130N 1268E 035
T036 138N 1258E 040 R034 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD
T048 148N 1245E 045 R034 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 170N 1222E 050 R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 198N 1206E 035
T120 228N 1209E 035
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351Z MAY 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 11.5N 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 128.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.0N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.8N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.8N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.0N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.8N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.8N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 128.2E.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 051351Z
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
//
0311050400 91N1313E 15
0311050406 93N1309E 15
0311050412 95N1305E 20
0311050418 97N1301E 20
0311050500 100N1297E 20
0311050506 104N1294E 20
0311050512 107N1292E 20
0311050518 110N1290E 20
0311050600 113N1287E 25
0311050606 115N1284E 30NNNN
TPPN10 PGTW 061832
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (E OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 06/1732Z
C. 12.0N
D. 127.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YEILDS 1.5
DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ROSS
SSD:
06/0832 UTC 11.8N 128.7E T1.5/1.5 03W
06/0232 UTC 11.1N 128.8E T1.0/1.0 93W
05/2032 UTC 10.6N 128.6E T1.0/1.0 93W
05/1432 UTC 10.3N 127.6E T1.0/1.0 93W
WTPN51 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCP MIL 03W NWP 110506074326
2011050606 03W THREE 001 01 305 04 SATL 060
T000 115N 1284E 030
T012 122N 1277E 030
T024 130N 1268E 035
T036 138N 1258E 040 R034 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD
T048 148N 1245E 045 R034 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 170N 1222E 050 R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 198N 1206E 035
T120 228N 1209E 035
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351Z MAY 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 11.5N 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 128.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.0N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.8N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.8N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.0N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.8N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.8N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 128.2E.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 051351Z
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
//
0311050400 91N1313E 15
0311050406 93N1309E 15
0311050412 95N1305E 20
0311050418 97N1301E 20
0311050500 100N1297E 20
0311050506 104N1294E 20
0311050512 107N1292E 20
0311050518 110N1290E 20
0311050600 113N1287E 25
0311050606 115N1284E 30NNNN
TPPN10 PGTW 061832
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (E OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 06/1732Z
C. 12.0N
D. 127.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YEILDS 1.5
DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ROSS
SSD:
06/0832 UTC 11.8N 128.7E T1.5/1.5 03W
06/0232 UTC 11.1N 128.8E T1.0/1.0 93W
05/2032 UTC 10.6N 128.6E T1.0/1.0 93W
05/1432 UTC 10.3N 127.6E T1.0/1.0 93W
JMA Positions (05 1800Z-06 1200Z)
0518Z:
0600Z: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 11N 128E NORTH SLOWLY.
0606Z: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 11N 128E ALMOST STATIONARY.
0612Z: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 12N 129E ALMOST STATIONARY.
0600Z: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 11N 128E NORTH SLOWLY.
0606Z: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 11N 128E ALMOST STATIONARY.
0612Z: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 12N 129E ALMOST STATIONARY.
CWB 定位 (05 1800Z-06 1200Z)
0606Z: 熱帶性低氣壓1002百帕,在北緯11.5度,東 經128度,即在菲律賓東方海面,向西北西移動,時速10 公里。
HKO 天氣報告/預測
06@03:50
一 道 廣 闊 雲 帶 正 覆 蓋 華 南 。 同 時 , 一 個 低 壓 區 為 菲 律 賓 以 東 海 域 帶 來 不 穩 定 的 天 氣 。 06@08:45
驟 雨 正 影 響 廣 東 內 陸 。 同 時 , 一 個 低 壓 區 為 菲 律 賓 以 東 海 域 帶 來 不 穩 定 的 天 氣 。
06@15:45 (TCFA)
此 外 , 現 時 菲 律 賓 以 東 海 域 的 氣 壓 頗 低 , 一 個 熱 帶 低 氣 壓 似 乎 在 形 成 中 。
06@16:45, 17:45
同 時 , 菲 律 賓 以 東 海 域 的 氣 壓 頗 低 , 一 個 熱 帶 低 氣 壓 似 乎 在 形 成 中 。
06@08:00 (7 Days)
一 道 高 壓 脊 會 在 下 週 初 為 中 國 東 南 沿 岸 帶 來 大 致 晴 朗 的 天 氣 , 而 一 個 低 壓 區 則 會 影 響 呂 宋 以 西 海 域 。
一 道 廣 闊 雲 帶 正 覆 蓋 華 南 。 同 時 , 一 個 低 壓 區 為 菲 律 賓 以 東 海 域 帶 來 不 穩 定 的 天 氣 。 06@08:45
驟 雨 正 影 響 廣 東 內 陸 。 同 時 , 一 個 低 壓 區 為 菲 律 賓 以 東 海 域 帶 來 不 穩 定 的 天 氣 。
06@15:45 (TCFA)
此 外 , 現 時 菲 律 賓 以 東 海 域 的 氣 壓 頗 低 , 一 個 熱 帶 低 氣 壓 似 乎 在 形 成 中 。
06@16:45, 17:45
同 時 , 菲 律 賓 以 東 海 域 的 氣 壓 頗 低 , 一 個 熱 帶 低 氣 壓 似 乎 在 形 成 中 。
06@08:00 (7 Days)
一 道 高 壓 脊 會 在 下 週 初 為 中 國 東 南 沿 岸 帶 來 大 致 晴 朗 的 天 氣 , 而 一 個 低 壓 區 則 會 影 響 呂 宋 以 西 海 域 。
PAGASA 報文 @ May 05 1800Z, 06 0000Z and 0600Z
At 2:00 a.m. Today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 170 km East of Catbalogan City (12.0°N, 126.5°E).
===========
Weather Advisory No. 2
At 10:00 am today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 120 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (11.0°N 127.0°E).
This disturbance is expected to bring scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms in Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming widespread rains over the Bicol Region and Visayas which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.
Residents living in low lying areas, along river banks and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures.
==========
At 2:00 p.m. Today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 300 km East of Borongan, Eastern Samar (11.5°N, 128.5°E).
==========Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "BEBENG"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Friday, 06 May 2011The Low Pressure Area (LPA) East of Visayas has intensified into a tropical depression and was named "BEBENG".
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.)250 km East of Borongan, Eastern Samar
Coordinates:11.7°N, 127.9°E
Strength:Maximum winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement:West Northwest at 13 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Saturday evening:
150 km East Southeast of Legaspi City
Sunday evening:
120 km East of Infanta, Quezon
Monday evening:
50 km Southeast of Vigan City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS #Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Luzon
Camarines Sur
Albay
Catanduanes
Sorsogon
Masbate
Ticao Islands
Burias Islands
Visayas
Leyte
Samar Provinces
Biliran Island
Mindanao
None
===========
Weather Advisory No. 2
At 10:00 am today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 120 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (11.0°N 127.0°E).
This disturbance is expected to bring scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms in Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming widespread rains over the Bicol Region and Visayas which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.
Residents living in low lying areas, along river banks and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures.
==========
At 2:00 p.m. Today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 300 km East of Borongan, Eastern Samar (11.5°N, 128.5°E).
==========Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "BEBENG"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Friday, 06 May 2011The Low Pressure Area (LPA) East of Visayas has intensified into a tropical depression and was named "BEBENG".
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.)250 km East of Borongan, Eastern Samar
Coordinates:11.7°N, 127.9°E
Strength:Maximum winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement:West Northwest at 13 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Saturday evening:
150 km East Southeast of Legaspi City
Sunday evening:
120 km East of Infanta, Quezon
Monday evening:
50 km Southeast of Vigan City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS #Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Luzon
Camarines Sur
Albay
Catanduanes
Sorsogon
Masbate
Ticao Islands
Burias Islands
Visayas
Leyte
Samar Provinces
Biliran Island
Mindanao
None
分析圖
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